Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
